Firearms Owners Against Crime
Institute for Legal, Legislative and Educational Action
Institute for Legal, Legislative and Educational Action
The Old Gunhand is entitled to his opinion, but completely discounting the billions of rounds on order from DHS, IRS, and nearly every other alphabet agency doesn't work for me. Here's the Old Gunhand's opinion. I think he missed the point of intrusive Government driving up costs and killing availability.
We are shooting ourselves in the foot with ammo we cannot afford or find.
By: The Old Gunhand
Like many of you I have been following the ammo shortage; perhaps more in depth than most due to the nature of my business. I have also read the articles written by people who are in touch with the ammo manufacturers. There is no government conspiracy or plot. Just normal buying cycles. Like us, the government sometimes buys more or less than the year before.
Nobody is manipulating the ammo supply to promote gun control. Instead it turns out that we have met the enemy and it is us. We caused the ammo shortage and the worse news is that the manufacturers are saying that we will not recover for at least a year or more and only if we stop our panic buying now. What happened was very irrational. There was concern about an assault weapons ban and for some strange reason, despite no talk of any ammo ban, people were buying anything that had to do with guns, even ammo. Some even bought ammo for gun they did not own. I know that I did in anticipation of buying a .380 and .45 and I am glad I did because I now own those guns and can shoot them; at least a few times.
Due to the panic buying of ammo at levels I have not seen in my lifetime, the ready inventory of ammo was depleted. That resulted in ammo retailers placing orders in accordance with demand. Those orders exceeded what the ammo manufacturers could produce in a year and Bob's your uncle. Ammo manufacturers are now playing catch-up trying to fill all their backorders. This in turn is still creating an ammo shortage. Since ammo is in short supply, some are buying it as soon as it hits the shelves thus creating an ammo shortage which in turn makes the retailers order even more which puts the manufacturers even further behind schedule. Until WE break this cycle, the ammo shortage and high prices will continue. You see, when demand exceeds supply, prudent businessmen raise prices to see what the market can bear. Apparently there are those out there that are willing to pay $100 for a brick of .22 ammo that used to retail for about $22 at one time. I know that I paid $60 for a brick a few months ago as I had a .22 and no ammo. I have since sold off my .22?s as they are no longer inexpensive to shoot. In fact, I can get 9mm, .45 and .380 ammo easier than I can .22lr and .22 mag.
As it stands now, according to everything I have read, we are looking at over a year before ammo is as readily available as it used to be and selling near their former prices. However, that is only if we all go back to our old ordering habits and not buying up more than we need. Some will say that there is no such thing as having enough ammo. Maybe so but if this continues the way it is, we will continue to pay double and triple for our ammo when we can find it for years to come. We may well all end up with a lot of ammo but when we go to shoot it we will be thinking that each round costs a dollar or close to it. I know that even though I have many hundreds of rounds of ammo in different calibers I am hesitant to shoot it due to its cost. When I go to the range and shoot 100 rounds of .45 I am shooting close to $100 of ammo and that has a psychological effect on me for next time I go shooting. I went from shooting 200-300 runs per range visit to bring a box of 50 in one caliber for a gun I have not shot in a while that needs to be tested for reliability and my ability to still shoot it well plus a magazine of carry ammo for another gun to just test it with the ammo I carry in it. My range session went from 2-3 hours to less than an hour now. When you have 4 magazines that hold 15-17 rounds each and practice self defense shooting and not slow target shooting, you can empty a magazine very quickly and go through all 50 rounds before you know it.
I for one am refraining from buying any more ammo than I need for my short term needs at present. I am not someone who thinks that a war will break out that requires me to have thousands of rounds. I have heard that old story far too long to believe it will ever occur in my lifetime. Heck, I have more ammo than I brought into combat with me and that is crazy. I too was part of the problem but no more. If I shoot a box, I will buy a box and not 10 boxes just because it is available. Let's face it, if it was not for the foreign ammo makers seeing an opportunity to increase sales, we would be in really bad shape as far as ammo availability goes. I cannot remember when was the last time I was able to buy the good old American ammo I used to buy. I occasionally see it for sale online but it is outrageously priced and even worse so when you factor in shipping. For now I will start depleting my on-hand ammo supply before I buy anymore. I have resisted ordering ammo when I find it still in stock.
Many ask why don't the manufactures make more to meet demand. The problem is that they are running at full capacity now. One or two have started construction on new facilities but that takes time to build, equip and train the staff. It will not help in the short term. The others are smart businessmen. You do not invest in more equipment and facilities to meet short term spikes in demand. If you do that you will start losing money as soon as demand goes back to normal. You have to plan long term and not spend millions for short term needs.
We also run a very real risk of putting some ammo makers out of business. How can that happen you say? Real easy. If we buy up a few years worth of ammo; more than we need for the next few years, are we likely to keep buying once we know that ammo is once again readily available? Odds are that most of us will start using up the ammo we have stockpiled secure in the knowledge that we can easily replace it with ammo that is now plentiful and inexpensive. We then will cause the opposite of what we caused now; low demand. What are all those ammo companies going to do when they have no one to sell their ammo to? Do they risk the profits they made in the previous years hoping that demand will increase before they run out of money? Some may obtain more government or LEO agency contracts to stay afloat which in turn means less for the consumer and when the consumer sees the ammo drying up again, the panic buying will begin once more. A vicious and dangerous cycle. What we need to do is just return to our normal buying habits right now and let the market stabilize. Suck it up for a year and wait for it to normalize. We are damned if we continue buying more ammo than we need or stop buying altogether. We have to be in the middle.
It is up to you. Just remember this simple economic fact; if you continue to buy ammo at a rate and quantity above your normal buying habits, the current situation will extend even further into the future. Reduce the demand to pre 2013 levels, as we should all have enough ammo by now for our realistic needs, and give the ammo manufacturer's a chance to catch up and ammo prices and availability will drop down to pre-panic levels or close to it. However, once it returns to normal we have to keep buying at our old levels of run the risk of driving some of the ammo makers out of business. In general, demand should equal supply or at least capacity to produce to keep things the way we like it. Many seniors I know cannot even shoot anymore due to the cost of ammo while others easily can spend thousands buying up all the ammo they can find. For seniors it is still going to be a long time before prices drop to acceptable levels. Just hand in there, which is something we all try to do anyway.